Is the sewer budget realistic?

active updated 2026-06-08

↑Village/Issues/sewer-budget-accuracy

Does the adopted sewer budget match how the fund is actually spending? Each operating account's appropriation is tested against an empirical burn-rate projection built from the FY 25-26 QuickBooks ledger.

Recommendation

10 operating lines are projecting to run over their FY 26-27 appropriation at the current spend rate — led by WWTP Sludge Removal, Sanitary Sewer - Pers Serv and Supplies. The Board should revisit these appropriations before they bind, or document why the run-rate is expected to fall.

Operating cost vs rate revenue — monthly, on a true time axis

Two annualized run-rates on one scale. The violet cost lineis each month's actual operating spend × 12: solid where backed by real QuickBooks transactions for the volatile operating categories (sludge, repairs, supplies, septic, per-service, repair reserve) plus the stable lines at budget; dashed where projected forward by a recency-weighted trend. The green revenue lineis the rate revenue those operating costs are meant to cover. Where cost sits above revenue, the fund isn't covering its operating costs at current rates.

Rate revenueOSC actualsQuickBooks actualsProjection
Both lines are annualized run-rateson a true time axis (FY runs June 1 → May 31; the dashed black vertical marks today). Shaded background bands mark which per-BU rate was in effect — deeper shading is a higher rate; thin dashed verticals mark the exact change dates. The green revenue linesteps per quarter (sewer billing is quarterly): each segment sits at the full-year revenue the quarter's documented rate implies. The cost line is each month's spend × 12, coloured by where the number comes from: blue for the pre-QuickBooks years drawn from audited OSC AFR filings, violet for real QuickBooks actuals, and dotted violet where projected forward (the in-progress tail and FY 26/27 carry the empirical burn rate forward, matching the burn-extrapolation chart below). Hover a year for its adopted / projected / AFR figures.

How FY 26/27's projection was extrapolated

The hatched portion of the FY 26/27bar above is an empirical forecast built from the prior year's QuickBooks spend, account by account. Each panel below shows that account's cumulative spend through FY 25/26(solid blue line) and the fitted run-rate carried forward to FY-end (dashed amber). The dashed gray reference line is the next year's adopted budget for that same account — where the projection crosses well above it, the Board has under-budgeted relative to the observed run-rate, and the red marker dates the crossing.

How the projection is computed

It isn't a straight line through the first and last points. For each account we fit a recency-weighted regressionto its cumulative-spend curve and carry the fitted line's slope forward. Concretely:

Plot cumulative dollars spent against day-of-year, one point per QuickBooks transaction in FY 25/26(starting from $0 on June 1).
Add a flat tail: hold the cumulative total from the last transaction through May 31. A quiet stretch with no spending therefore counts as real $0/day and pulls the fitted rate down— “no recent activity” means the run-rate is genuinely lower, not that we extrapolate the old climb.
Fit a least-squares line to that curve, weighting each point by recency — a point is worth half as much for every ≈3 months (91-day half-life) it sits before the most recent activity. Recent months dominate the slope, so an account that sped up or slowed down late in the year is captured.
The fitted line's slope is the projected daily burn rate; its level where it reaches FY 26/27-start is where the dashed projection begins. Because it's a fit rather than an interpolation, the projection sits close to but not exactly on the last actual point — the gap is the signal of whether recent spend ran above or below trend.

Capital-class one-offs (equipment rebuilds, NOV-driven engineering) are pulled out first — see the Repair Reserve below — so a single large invoice doesn't distort an account's recurring run-rate. The same fit drives the violet cost line on the chart above and the FY-end projection totals.

Sanitary Sewer - Pers Serv

ES8120.1

$56,173 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $154.86/day avg (last activity 2026-05-26)

Projected full-year: $59,297/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $29K: +$30,729

Projected over budget by Dec 2, 2026

Repairs & Maint

ES8120.43

$24,431 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $73.78/day avg (last activity 2026-05-31)

Projected full-year: $25,459/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $20K: +$5,459

Projected over budget by Feb 27, 2027

Supplies

ES8120.45

$16,304 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $37.51/day avg (last activity 2026-05-31)

Projected full-year: $18,339/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $8K: +$10,339

Projected over budget by Dec 31, 2026

WWTP Sludge Removal

ES8130.42

$66,907 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $204.99/day avg (last activity 2026-05-20)

Projected full-year: $70,125/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $20K: +$49,949

Projected over budget by Sep 7, 2026

Septic Tank Pumping

ES8130.43

$19,969 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $58.18/day avg (last activity 2026-05-20)

Projected full-year: $21,499/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $20K: +$1,099

Projected over budget by May 17, 2027

Electrical Costs

ES8120.42

$43,666 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $137.94/day avg (last activity 2026-05-15)

Projected full-year: $42,497/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $38K: +$4,497

Projected over budget by Mar 3, 2027

Admin Contractual

ES1710.41

$26,250 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $84.93/day avg (last activity 2026-04-30)

Projected full-year: $26,619/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $42K: $-15,381

Within FY 26/27 budget at current run-rate

Lab Sampling

ES1710.43

$12,075 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $39.46/day avg (last activity 2026-05-27)

Projected full-year: $12,213/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $10K: +$2,213

Projected over budget by Feb 9, 2027

Grease Trap Pumping

ES8130.41

$7,992 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $21.04/day avg (last activity 2026-05-27)

Projected full-year: $7,964/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $9K: $-1,156

Within FY 26/27 budget at current run-rate

Fuel

ES8120.41

$6,833 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $22.20/day avg (last activity 2026-04-30)

Projected full-year: $6,607/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $5K: +$2,107

Projected over budget by Dec 20, 2026

Social Security

ES9030.8

$4,556 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $12.74/day avg (last activity 2026-05-26)

Projected full-year: $4,806/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $2K: +$2,735

Projected over budget by Nov 10, 2026

Security System

ES8120.46

$1,533 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $4.74/day avg (last activity 2026-03-17)

Projected full-year: $1,604/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $400: +$1,204

Projected over budget by Aug 24, 2026

Sewer Permits

ES8120.47

$425 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $0.89/day avg (last activity 2026-02-27)

Projected full-year: $447/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $500: $-53

Within FY 26/27 budget at current run-rate

Software

ES8120.44

$261 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $0.49/day avg (last activity 2026-01-23)

Projected full-year: $273/yr

vs FY 26/27 adopted $520: $-247

Within FY 26/27 budget at current run-rate

Roll-up. Across the 14 QB-tracked accounts above, FY 25/26 burn rates project to $297,750 of operating spend — vs $204,255 adopted for those lines in FY 26/27. That's the +$93,495 empirical signal feeding the hatched portion of the FY 26/27 bar above.

Reclassified to Repair Reserve

Capital-class items — equipment rebuilds and replacements — that QuickBooks booked to the operating accounts (Repairs & Maintenance, Supplies) but which don't recur annually. They're pulled out of those accounts' run-rate (so the burn projections above aren't distorted by one-off capital spend) and tracked here as draws against a Repair Reserve.

Date	Vendor	Item	Moved from	Amount
2025-07-01	Delaware Engineering DPC Delaware Engineering — WWTP upgrades required to satisfy a DEC Notice of Violation. NOV-driven plant engineering is capital-class compliance work, not a recurring annual operating cost; belongs in the Repair Reserve.	capital_engineering	ES8120.48	$3,220
2025-08-05	J Andrew Lange Inc FLD24G12 fiberglass lid + EPDM gasket — a specific equipment installation item, not a recurring consumable. Doesn't appear on Karen's 12/9/25 supplies list. Belongs to a Repair Reserve.	Equipment install	Supplies	$829
2025-08-11	Ferguson Waterworks #1672 115V 1HP Sewer Pump w/VLFS — pump replacement is a periodic capital-class event, not a recurring annual consumable. Belongs to a Repair Reserve.	Equipment replacement	Supplies	$729
2025-08-28	J Andrew Lange Inc Simplex Panel, Fiberglass Lid, Handling Discharge Saddle/plate assembly. Memo notes $942.06 to be reimbursed by 24 Market St (Invoice SE-2025-01) — i.e., this is a specific-property installation, not a routine sewer-fund supply. Belongs to a Repair Reserve. Note: $942 reimbursement should be tracked separately as a receivable.	Equipment install	Supplies	$1,732
2025-08-28	Delaware Engineering DPC Delaware Engineering — WWTP upgrades required to satisfy a DEC Notice of Violation (same 25-3881 engagement as Invoice 25-3881-1). Capital-class compliance work; belongs in the Repair Reserve.	capital_engineering	ES8120.48	$1,053
2025-12-10	Water Services Inc New side UV units rebuild — completed 12/10/25 against quote dated 03/28/25. The 9-month quote-to-completion span and $12,380 single-invoice scale make this a capital-class equipment refurbishment that doesn't recur annually. Karen's 26-27 budget already includes ~$2,000/yr for routine UV-bulb replacement (in supplies); this rebuild is additional capital-class work that should be funded from a Repair Reserve, not the operating R&M line.	Equipment rebuild	Repairs & Maint	$12,380
2026-04-07	Bullseye Industrial Sales LLC Bullseye Industrial Sales, $1,168, no memo — an unlabeled industrial-equipment purchase well above the routine parts/tools/consumables level for R&M. Reclassified to the Repair Reserve as capital-class alongside the April grinder; revisit if an invoice/memo later shows it was consumable.	Equipment replacement	Repairs & Maint	$1,168
2026-04-27	D&S Pump and Supply Co Inc 3HP 200V 3PH grinder pump — a durable plant asset replacement, not routine maintenance. At $7,201 it's the largest R&M invoice of the year and capital-class; belongs in a Repair Reserve, not the operating R&M run-rate.	Equipment replacement	Repairs & Maint	$7,201
Total reclassified to Repair Reserve				$28,311

▸Accounts with no FY 26/27 budget line (5)engineering, legal, postage, …

These accounts had FY 25/26 QuickBooks spending but the adopted FY 26/27 budget carries no line for them — so there's a run-rate projection but no budget to measure it against. They're excluded from the projection total above for that reason.

Communications

ES_communications

$882 over 365 elapsed days of FY 25/26 = $3.31/day avg (last activity 2026-05-27)

Projected full-year: $874/yr